Embraer Announces its Long-Term Market Outlook for the Airline and Business Jet Marketstitle
SAO JOSE DOS CAMPOS, Brazil, Nov. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- During the
6th Embraer Day held November 17 and 18 at its headquarters in Sao Jose dos
Campos, Brazil, Embraer (NYSE: ERJ) (Bovespa: EMBR3 EMBR4) presented its
forecast for the world demand of 30 to 120-seat commercial jets as well as for
the business jet market. At the same event, Embraer announced its airline and
business jet delivery forecast for 2006 and 2007.
Long-Term Market Outlook
Airline Market
Embraer foresees a global demand for 7,950 jets in the 30- to 120-seat
capacity segment over the next 20 years. The Company estimates that 3,350
aircraft will be delivered between 2006 and 2015, with the remaining 4,600
units to be delivered between 2016 and 2025. The total market value is
estimated at US$ 180 billion, as presented below:
Market Segment 2006-2015 2016-2025 2006-2025
(Seats)
30 - 60 500 1,050 1,550
61 - 90 1,300 1,650 2,950
91 - 120 1,550 1,900 3,450
Total 3,350 4,600 7,950
Our forecast indicates that the 30- to 60-seat market segment has reached
maturity, but will continue to play an important role in the air transport
industry. There is an increased market demand for 61- to 120-seat aircraft as
a result of regional airlines natural growth, replacement of ageing aircraft,
right-sizing requirements from network airlines and low cost carriers
expansion to mid-sized markets.
Embraer projects the following deliveries by region in the next 20 years:
Region Jet Deliveries Percentage
(30-120 seats)
USA, Canada
& Caribbean 4,230 53%
Europe 1,450 18%
China 590 7%
Russia & CIS 525 7%
Latin America 465 6%
Asia Pacific 410 5%
Africa & Middle East 280 4%
Total (2006-2025) 7,950
The Embraer Market Outlook 2006-2025 report will be available online
January 2006 at: http://www.embraer.com/outlook .
Business Jet Market
Embraer estimates an overall demand for 9,680 business jets over the next
10 years, which is in line with the figures reported by the industry. The
current forecast includes the expected worldwide demand for the very light jet
segment and does not take into consideration potential demand for the new air
taxi market.
The very light jet segment is expected to reach 2,500 aircraft over the
next 10 years, accounting for approximately 26 percent of total market
deliveries. Compared to other industry forecasts, this number is considered to
be conservative. Demand for the light jet segment is forecasted at 1,750
units.
Embraer recently entered the very light and light jet segments with the
launch of the Phenom family. First deliveries of the very light jet, the
Phenom 100, and the light jet, the Phenom 300, are expected in 2008 and 2009,
respectively.
Demand for the super mid-size jet segment is expected to reach 1,415
units, and for the large jet segment it is estimated at 950 aircraft over the
next decade.
Delivery Forecast for 2006 and 2007
Embraer maintains its forecast to deliver 145 aircraft in 2006 and expects
to deliver 150 aircraft in the airline segment, business jet segment and
authorities transportation portion of the defense segment in 2007. This
estimate takes into consideration airlines filing for bankruptcy protection,
cancellations in the 50-seat segment and the growth trend of 70-to 110-seat
jets.
In terms of percentages, it is worth highlighting that, in accordance with
the new Embraer market forecast, the share of deliveries for jets of the
EMBRAER 170/190 family is expected to increase in the coming years. These will
represent, starting in 2006, more than 70 percent of the deliveries forecast.
Embraer Image Gallery
Visit the new Embraer Image Gallery at http://www.embraer.com .
About Embraer
Embraer (Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica S.A.) (NYSE: ERJ)
(Bovespa: EMBR3 EMBR4) is the worlds leading manufacturer of Commercial jets
up to 110 seats, with 36 years of experience in designing, developing,
manufacturing, selling and providing after sales support to aircraft for the
global airline, defense and business jet markets. With headquarters in Sao
Jose dos Campos, state of Sao Paulo, the Company has offices and customer
service bases in the United States, France, Portugal, China and Singapore.
Embraer is among Brazils leading exporting companies. As of
September 30, 2005, Embraer had a total workforce of 17,046 people, and its
firm order backlog totaled US$ 10.4 billion.
This document may contain projections, statements and estimates regarding
circumstances or events yet to take place. Those projections and estimates are
based largely on current expectations, forecasts on future events and
financial tendencies that affect the Companys businesses. Those estimates are
subject to risks, uncertainties and suppositions that include, among others:
general economic, political and trade conditions in Brazil and in those
markets where the Company does business; expectations on industry trends; the
Companys investment plans; its capacity to develop and deliver products on
the dates previously agreed upon, and existing and future governmental
regulations. The words "believe," "may," "is able," "will be able," "intend,"
"continue," "anticipate," "expect" and other similar terms are supposed to
identify potentialities. The Company does not feel compelled to publish
updates nor to revise any estimates due to new information, future events or
any other facts. In view of the inherent risks and uncertainties, such
estimates, events and circumstances may not take place. The actual results
can, therefore, differ substantially from those previously published as
Company expectations.
